State Sen. Ron Menor, D-17th (Mililani, Waipio), has sent out a deeply personal apology to his constituents over his brush with the law after attending a Chicago concert in April.

Usually, political consultants believe one apology is enough before you move on and leave the mistake in the past. But Menor, who is facing two primary opponents, used the letter to take full responsibility for his drunken driving and said he “should have known better.”

From the letter, which was first posted Tuesday on the Hawaii Threads Web site:

While I know many will believe I don’t deserve it, I nevertheless ask for your patience and understanding, and a second chance.

I know it will take time and that I will have to earn back your trust. I accept that as well. This has been a life-changing and deeply humbling experience, through which I have gained a greater appreciation for the privilege of representing you in the Legislature.

I believe that I have served our community well and cherish every moment of my work. Rather than let this incident pull me down, I want to use it to become a better person and a better representative of your trust. I feel invigorated and committed to do an even better job as your senator.

State Rep. Jon Riki Karamatsu, D-41st (Waipahu, Village Park, Waikele), sent out a similar note in a mailer to his constituents last year. The young lawmaker had the misfortune of having his drunken driving case dragged back into the light by the news media after Menor got picked up.

Karamatsu also has a primary opponent and he could face Rito Saniatan, a Republican insurance broker, in a general election rematch of 2004 and 2006.

The mailers are attempts to help inoculate Menor and Karamatsu from opportunistic political attacks over their arrests.

Menor said this afternoon, however, that he planned the letter regardless of a primary challenge. “Whether I had opposition or not, I was going to send the letter out,” he said.

Here is a rundown of potentially competitive state House and Senate campaigns based on information from political strategists and party insiders. We will update the outlook and the races at the end of each month as we approach the September primary and November general election.

Overview: With Hawai’i-born U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois likely the Democratic presidential nominee, it could be another strong year for Democrats down the ballot. Average to above-average voter turnout will likely enable Democrats to hold the gains they made in 2004 and 2006. The Obama factor will likely play out most heavily in races that are otherwise even or do not have candidates with strong name recognition or history. But since the majority party has to hold so much territory, Democrats may lose two seats in the state House and could pick up one seat in the state Senate.

High voter turnout — an Obama wave — could result in Democrats holding all of their existing territory and toppling several Republican incumbents.

State Senate
Democrats: 21
Republicans: 4
Projected
Democrats: 22
Republicans: 3

State House
Democrats: 44
Republicans: 7
Projected
Democrats: 42
Republicans: 9

State Senate
*SD1 (Hämäkua, S. Hilo):
Takamine (D)
Hong (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Democrat. Labor influence and Takamine’s history of representing much of the territory in the House give him an advantage, but Gov. Linda Lingle and state Republicans put Hong — the governor’s former chief labor negotiator — at the top of their help list.

*SD3 (Kohala, Kona, Ka’ü):
Green (D)
Isbell (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Democrat pickup. Green, who has been fundraising and campaigning for a year, holds the advantage in the primary but Isbell, a former state representative and County Councilmember, has a history with voters.

*SD5 (W. Maui, S. Maui):
Baker (D)
Mulvihill (D)
Shields (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Baker, the chairwoman of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, is in a position to deliver state money and influence but Shields has a base of support among people disappointed that a proposal for a private hospital failed.

*SD12 (Waikïkï, Ala Moana, Downtown):
Trimble (R)
Galuteria (D)
Middleton (D)
Outlook: Leans Republican. A traditionally Republican district may be shifting into the competitive column. Trimble has money and will be an aggressive campaigner. Galuteria is a former Democratic Party of Hawai’i chairman with name recognition as a broadcaster.

*SD18 (Waipahu, Crestview, Pearl City):
Nishihara (D)
Sonson (D)
Outlook: Democrat. Rare intraparty skirmish between two sitting lawmakers. Nishihara is getting help from Senate leadership while Sonson may do well in large Filipino community.

State House
*HD1 (Kohala, Hämäkua, N. Hilo):
Nakashima (D)
Fujiyama (D)
Kim (D)
Nakkim (D)
Offenbaker (R)
Weinert (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Democrat. Labor influence makes this a tough road for Republicans. Early buzz is with Nakashima in the Democratic primary. Republicans like Offenbaker but realize the district is a longshot for the GOP.

*HD4 (Puna, Pähoa, Hawaiian Acres):
Hanohano (D)
Marzi (D)
Sparks (D)
Blas (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Hanohano, a freshman, will have to fight off a primary challenge in an emerging swing district.

*HD6 (N. Kona, Keauhou, Kailua-Kona):
Smith (R)
MacGregor (D)
Coffman (D)
Leslie (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Potential Republican pickup. Smith, the governor’s liaison in West Hawai’i, is one of the GOP’s best hopes in a potentially bleak year. Democrats will assess after the primary, but the buzz is with MacGregor.

*HD9 (Wailuku, Pu’unene, Makawao):
Nakasone (D)
Apana (D)
Kahula (R)
Outlook: Democrat. Nakasone is campaigning for another term after surviving a health scare that caused him to miss most of last session. The question is whether Apana, the former mayor, is serious about the primary or was just holding a place in case Nakasone dropped out.

*HD11 (Mäkena, Wailea, Kihei):
Bertram (D)
Gingerich (D)
Fontaine (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Traditionally Republican territory could make it difficult on Bertram, a freshman who has a young primary opponent who became active because of Obama. The GOP rates Fontaine, a retired police captain, to do well.

*HD23 (Waikïkï, Ala Moana):
Brower (D)
Stevens (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. The freshman Brower’s narrow victory over Stevens in 2006 was seen as a potential turning point for a district that had been traditionally Republican. The rematch could be telling.

*HD24 (Mänoa):
Chrystn Eads (D)
Jerilyn Jeffryes (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Democrat. Eads, an aide to Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, and Jeffryes, a community activist, were last-minute filings after the unexpected announcement that City Councilmember Ann Kobayashi would run for mayor and state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell would jump in to replace her.

*HD35 (Pearl City, Waipahu):
Aquino (D)
Domingo (D)
Parayno (D)
Rahman (D)
Verdadero (D)
Antonio (R)
Outlook: Open seat. Leans Democrat. Wide open primary in a district where the Democratic nominee will be favored. Early buzz is with Aquino.

*HD40 (Royal Kunia, Makakilo, Kapolei):
Har (D)
Legal (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. A swing district that is emerging as one of the most competitive in the state. Har, a freshman, could face a strong challenge from Legal, a Realtor active with the Filipino Chamber of Commerce of Hawai’i.

*HD44 (Honokai Hale, Nänäkuli, Lualualei):
Awana (D)
Aipoalani (D)
Ku (R)
Outlook: Democrat. Awana, a freshman, is facing voters for the first time since switching parties. Aipoalani, a former biotechnology executive, impressed many during his unsuccessful run in the Democratic primary in CD2 in 2006.

*HD46 (Schofield, Mokulë’ia, North Shore):
Magaoay (D)
Lunasco (D)
Wasson (D)
Philips (R)
Riviere (R)
Outlook: Leans Democrat. Magaoay is facing a primary challenge after critical newspaper stories about his oversight of nonprofit grants-in-aid. Philips has come close to Magaoay three times before, but has to contend with Riviere in the primary.

*HD47 (Lä’ie, Hau’ula, Punalu’u):
Meyer (R)
Wooley (D)
Pacheco (D)
Outlook: Leans Republican. Meyer, the most conservative Republican in the House, is popular and a good campaigner. But Democrats think Wooley, an environmental attorney and progressive, may be competitive if she gets through the primary.

*HD51 (Lanikai, Waimänalo):
Kawananakoa (R)
Anderson (D)
Lee (D)
Outlook: Open seat. Potential Republican pickup. Kawananakoa has the money and name recognition to potentially flip the district back into the GOP column.

State Rep. Rida Cabanilla, D-42nd (Waipahu, Honouliuli, `Ewa), may have lost an office manager but gained a Republican political opponent.

Cabanilla apparently dismissed her office manager, Tom Berg, after learning Berg had endorsed engineer Panos Prevedouros for Honolulu mayor. Up until County Councilmember Ann Kobayashi’s surprise entrance into the mayor’s race today, Prevedouros was the star of the anti-rail coalition.

Cabanilla has talked about several creative alternatives to traffic congestion but has not come out against rail given the traffic-choked Leeward district she represents.

A telephone caller to her office on Monday afternoon told Cabanilla that some of her staffers had backed Prevedouros. She asked Berg to pull up the Panos for Progress Web site and when she saw his endorsement she fired him on the spot.

“She goes livid. We’re talking livid,” he said. “She closes the door, screaming at me.”

Berg, a Republican, said Cabanilla had previously told him not to have Prevedouros or rail critic Cliff Slater on his public access television show — `Ewa Today. He said she also ordered him to remove a bumper sticker for U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, from his car.

Berg filed papers today to run as a Republican against his boss. Cabanilla also has a primary opponent in Michael Schultz, a young Democrat with connections.

“I’ve always been a registered Republican,” explained Berg, who added he has no ill-will against Cabanilla.

Cabanilla said today that she had not really fired Berg. She said she was leaving on a family vacation to Washington, D.C., and would decide his fate when she returns next week.

“I need to re-evaluate, because I was so upset yesterday,” she said. “I just told him that if you force me to make a decision today, if I am to make a decision today, you’re fired.

“But, granted that, there is beauty and ugliness in every individual, I will re-evaluate your services here at this office.”

In a related move, Daniel de Gracia II, a former Cabanilla staffer who has also endorsed Prevedouros, said he would resign as a Democratic precinct chair in protest of Berg’s apparent firing.

Update: Cabanilla, who had spoken to us just before the filing deadline Tuesday and was traveling, called Wednesday morning to say that Berg’s decision to run as a Republican in her district makes it easier to let him go. She said the fact that he is a Republican and anti-rail did not bother her until he made it public.

“He’s filed at this point so there is no reconciliation,” she said.

Veteran political consultant Joe Napolitan shared the 112 lessons he learned from a career in politics for the first chapter of “Winning Elections,” a 2003 compilation of articles from Campaigns & Elections magazine.

A local political observer who was reading the book thought lesson #103 sounded familiar:

103. It’s the candidate’s campaign and he or she has the ultimate right to make the decisions.

Even if what the candidate decides to do is wrong, it’s his or her call. His neck is on the line and he has the right to trust his own counsel. Unfortunately, this sometimes means losing a campaign that could be won.

Recently I was involved in a gubernatorial primary in which the candidate, contrary to advice from me and others, decided to spend much of his time in the final days before the primary in a remote area of the state with less than 25 percent of the vote while virtually ignoring the most heavily populated section and also failed to follow some recommendations that would have almost certainly swung a few thousand votes in his direction.

In the end, after starting with about 5 percent of the vote in a three-way race, he lost, 41-40, by 2,600 votes. He won the most populous area by 2,000 votes but lost the less-populated section by 4,600 votes.

I was incensed — but when I calmed down I remembered it was his campaign and his call. In my opinion, he made the wrong decision — but it was his right to do so.

Napolitan, who did not mention any names in his lesson, was a consultant for Ed Case during his unsuccessful 2002 campaign in the Democratic primary for governor.

Case lost the primary to Mazie Hirono 41% to 39%, or by 2,613 votes. Case won on O’ahu but Hirono swept the Neighbor Islands.

We asked Case what he thought:

It’s my ‘02 Governor primary campaign. Joe was and is a great political consultant, he gave us great advice, most of which we followed, and his consulting was a major reason we came from so far back to just missing a win by another one or two campaign days.

The last ten days were the most fluid of any of my campaigns, and it was anyone’s guess what was really going on. Joe, who was on the East Coast, wanted me to spend the last week exclusively on Oahu, which was sound generic advice. On the ground here, we felt the Neighbor Islands were far more fluid than Oahu. Additionally, I’d made commitments to my county campaigns and to traditional events (like the Democratic rally at Mooheau Park in Hilo) that I didn’t feel I could break, and I also felt that I should do one last whistle stop around the whole state, including the too-often-ignored Neighbor Islands, in the last week.

As it ended up, I recall I spent most of the last week on Oahu, with one rally/signwaving/event on each of Kauai, Maui and the Big Island.

The election results are pretty much as Joe describes them: we lost by 1% overall; we won Oahu; and we lost the Neighbor Islands. Those results can be interpreted a number of ways: that we should have spent more time on Oahu, as Joe believes; or that we held a lead on Oahu and got it close (but not quite close enough) on the Neighbor Islands; or otherwise.

One thing I’ve discovered in a few very close elections is that when it’s that close, anything and everything is the reason for the result. Personally, I don’t believe my time on the Neighbor Islands in the last week accounted for the loss; there were other factors which had far more to do with the result than this one, if in fact it had any negative impact.

I do agree with Joe’s overall lesson that it’s ultimately the candidate’s campaign and call and he or she is responsible for the decisions and outcome (although in today’s consulted-out political world it’s getting harder and harder to find the candidate), and would add a few of my own: campaigns are fluid; usual rules have to be balanced against rapidly-changing conditions on the ground; it’s hard to get it exactly right; and nobody really knows all of what accounts for an outcome.

Hope that helps, and thanks for the trip down memory lane. Of my 14 elections and election nights to date (plus two Neighborhood Board elections), this one was the most … everything.

Honolulu City Council member Rod Tam likes to mix food with business, according to city expense reports, and in the last fiscal year he spent more than $5,000 on more than 150 breakfasts, lunches, and dinners.

Tam is hardly the first politician or businessman to talk shop over a meal, but thanks to the city council approving rules that make their $18,011.11 a year expense accounts transparent, the public gets to see when and who Tam broke bread with.

His meetings over meals range from $2 to $443.25 that he spent on a dinner meeting with members of Mercy Corps from Taiwan in July 2007.

In June he held 34 food-based city meetings to discuss an array of topics, including “international relations with China and Taiwan”, “River Street housing”, “economic direction of the city”, and the “Lung Kong society.”

Other interesting June expenditures include $380 for 200 candy leis, $22.84 for an office plant and $35.06 for a wall clock and bottled water for his staff.

To see what your council member’s business dinners cost, where they are traveling, and how much their cell phone bill averages, click here then click on the link titled “expenditure report.”

Those who think Tam eats too much should feel lucky that they get to see what he spends and where.

Very few elected officials in the state of Hawaii post their annual expense reports online beneath their e-mail address and phone number.