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Island Real Estate
In this blog you'll find the most current sales information for island real estate, as well as a host of related topics like neighborhood specifics, Realtor events, economic conditions and other educational subjects. Harvey's goal is to help you better understand the statistical data and keep you informed about what's happening in the industry.
Reach Harvey at harveys@hawaii.rr.com.
Posted on: March 3, 2008 at 4:45:39 pm
February Statistics

Sales for February were reported today by the Honolulu Board of REALTORS® and the figures were very low, both compared to last year and in real terms. Median prices, however, continue to be holding at current levels.

The reported sales for February came in at 163 single family homes and 321 condominiums. These figures represent a significant decline from a year ago when the numbers were 272 and 402, respectively, and this means sales decreases of 40.1% and 20.1%.

The median prices for February were $599,000 and $335,000, with the latter price tying records set last year. The single family home price fell below the $600,000 mark for the first time since 2005, but only by $1,000, and prices are still double what they were in 2000.

Why did we have such a major sales shrinkage? My theory is that there's been an overwhelming number of negative reports on housing in the national media that consumers are reacting to and are taking a wait and see attitude. Even though the economic conditions in Hawaii remain pretty strong, incomes are still rising and unemployment is still low, people are afraid of what's around the corner.

I continue to believe that the current softness is probably a normal part of the regular business cycle and shouldn't be a reason to avoid the market. Financing costs are still quite low and the FHA loan limit was just raised, a positive move for the housing industry. Asking prices for the inventory continue to be reduced, even though there hasn't been much of an increase to the supply of available homes.

We need to see what happens to the economy in the next few months to predict when (not if) the market will recover, but this is certainly a good time to arrange a deal on real estate.

Comments:

Comment from: Brad [Visitor]
If the so called experts take the time to actually analyze the housing data and give the people of Hawaii a truthful analysis they should come to the following conclusion. If you take all the high end (1 million and above ) homes sales out for February 2007 and 2008 years the mid home level market would’ve drop significantly this month compared to the previous year. So if you’re looking to purchase a home above the 1 million mark then you should go ahead. But if you’re looking to purchase a home below the million dollar mark then that market has just started to crash and it won’t hit bottom anytime soon.
Permalink 03/04/08 @ 09:06
Comment from: eMH [Visitor] · http://www.emarkethawaii.com
The above comment made me think 'why median price instead of mean (average) price?'. A quick search on Wikipedia for 'real estate pricing' gave me this snippet:

The median home price is one of the most common measurements used to compare real estate prices in different markets, areas, and periods. It is said to be less biased than the average since it is not as heavily influenced by the top 2% of homes sold.

But I'm still compelled to see if there is substance to Brad's statement...
Permalink 03/05/08 @ 02:53
Comment from: Harvey [Member]
Thanks. Brad, for your comments and also the clarification from eMH. While I haven't yet tested Brad's hypothesis, eMH is making a good point: we show median and not average. Therefore, a $20 million sale counts the same as any other above-median sale, i.e., $700,000. Therefore, if I eliminate all $1 million and higher sales, I don't believe that you'll see a dramatic difference between last year's adjusted figures and this year's. When I get a chance, I'll do the comparison.
Permalink 03/05/08 @ 13:24

Comments are closed for this post.



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